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A KENTUCKY INVESTMENT manager won the Barron’s 2007 forecasting challenge‚ beating more than 1‚000 other entrants.
Chad Sturgill‚ a portfolio manager for the trust and investment division of Community Trust Bancorp (ticker: CTBI)‚ a Pikeville-based bank‚ was the only entrant who scored 11; the maximum possible score was 21 points in our sixth annual challenge. The contest once again proved to be tough‚ with the average score of five. I got a five. The correct answers are below.
Sturgill‚ 36‚ is the first professional investor to win the contest. A Barron’s reader for a decade‚ he’s bullish on stocks‚ partly because they look more appealing than bonds. He notes that the Standard & Poor’s 500’s earnings yield – 12–month collective profits divided by collective stock price—is around 7%‚ way above the 10-year Treasury note’s yield‚ currently about 3.6%.
Sturgill wins a one-year Barron’s subscription and lunch with me in New York. If he can’t make it to Manhattan‚ we’ll send him $100.
go to Barron’s to read the questions and results >>
2007 Equity Market Review
Although the first half of 2007 was exceptionally strong for equities‚ the markets were blasted with strong headwinds in May when evidence first surfaced that some mortgage bonds would be unable to pay their expected interest payments. These initial signs of trouble led both bondholders and bond issuers to reexamine their holdings for impending problems. Upon initial review when this "credit crunch" was thought to be contained to only speculative–grade mortgage bonds‚ equities rallied from late summer to mid–October. As it became more and more evident that these credit problems extended to investment–grade mortgages‚ credit card debt and automobile loans‚ the equity markets limped their way to the end of the year.
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